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Get cash advance loans and payday loans for short-term immediate money needs.

Bad credit personal loans

It’s close to imposible to get a loan, even a small loan, from a bank if you have problems with maitaining a good credit rating. Banks don’t understant that in an economic slump, people often suffer from losing their job. Cut backs, downsizing and the like hit the middle class the hardest. What can you possibly do if you have many outstanding bills to pay? Turning to your family or friends may not help.

A good option is to get an online personal loan from private lenders, The fees they charge are higher than at traditional banks, but what can you possibly do if there is no-one to help? Online cash advance has plenty of advantages, namely, you can get it almost immediately. Many legitimate lenders act fast, providing the money you need in a very short time. Application goes through secure servers, which prevent  identity theft. Anyone can apply and be eligible for a loan, for instance there are bad credit loans for military or payday loans for pensioners with bad credit.

Remember to pay back the loan at the time specified and agreed upon. Failure to do so might badly influance your credit score and blacklist you for a long time.

Posted in Loans.


Proprietary databases

Most banks now have internal rating systems and maintain historic databases on default rates. Unfortunately at many banks this is a relatively recent phenomenon (recent in the sense that to be useful the data should cover at least one full economic cycle). Other problems are that definitions of ratings or their interpretation over time may change and there is often a lack of granularity in the internal ratings used. There also have to be questions over its usefulness as a reference point when such data covers a period largely characterized by a developing banking crisis, the crisis itself and its subsequent resolution.

Posted in Proprietary databases.

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Foreign Currency Markets vs. Dollars

While consumers need dollars within the United States, those dollars may be worth more or less overseas depending on the currency exchange rate. If you check out payday loan information for travel overseas and unexpected emergencies, you will end up paying an exchange rate.

Some of the best ways to travel costs overseas is to plan ahead. You can get your currency exchanged ahead of time, if the dollar appears to be weakening, so that you can have foreign currency in your pocket before you leave. There are online web sites that will trade and mail you the foreign currency at a better exchange rate than you can get at the local airports once you arrive.

Speculating on foreign currency requires some knowledge of the foreign currency markets. If that is too difficult, stick with monetary industries in your own currency like payday lending.

Posted in currency.


CURRENCY FORWARD CONTRACTS

Spurred by the relaxation of government controls over the exchange rates of most major currencies in the early 1970s, a currency forward market developed and grew extremely large. Currency forwards are widely used by banks and corporations to manage foreign exchange risk. For example, suppose Microsoft has a European subsidiary that expects to send it €12 million in three months. When Microsoft receives the euros, it will then convert them to dollars. Thus, Microsoft is essentially long euros because it will have to sell euros, or equivalently, it is short dollars because it will have to buy dollars. A currency forward contract is especially useful in this situation, because it enables Microsoft to lock in the rate at which it will sell euros and buy dollars in three months. It can do this by going short the forward contract, meaning that it goes short the euro and long the dollar. This arrangement serves to offset its otherwise long-euro, short-dollar position. In other words, it needs a forward contract to sell euros and buy dollars.
For example, say Microsoft goes to JP Morgan Chase and asks for a quote on a currency forward for € 12 million in three months. JP Morgan Chase quotes a rate of $0.925, which would enable Microsoft to sell euros and buy dollars at a rate of $0.925 in three months. Under this contract, Microsoft would know it could convert its €12 million to 12,000,000 X $0.925 = $1 1,100,000. The contract would also stipulate whether it will settle in cash or will call for Microsoft to actually deliver the euros to the dealer and be paid $11,100,000. This simplified example is a currency forward hedge, a transaction we explore more thoroughly in next posts.
Now let us say that three months later, the spot rate for euros is $0.920. Microsoft is quite pleased that it locked in a rate of $0.925. It simply delivers the euros and receives $1 1,100,000 at an exchange rate of $0.925.” Had rates risen, however, Microsoft would still have had to deliver the euros and accept a rate of $0.925.

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FORWARD CONTRACTS ON INTEREST RATES: FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

So far we have discussed forward contracts on actual fixed-income securities. Fixed-income security prices are driven by interest rates. A more common type of forward contract is the interest rate forward contract, more commonly called a forward rate agreement or FRA. Before we can begin to understand FRAs, however, we must exarnine the instruments on which they are based.
There is a large global market for time deposits in various currencies issued by large creditworthy banks. This market is primarily centered in London but also exists elsewhere, though not in the United States. The primary time deposit instrument is called the Eurodollar, which is a dollar deposited outside the Unites States. Banks borrow dollars from other banks by issuing Eurodollar time deposits, which are essentially short-term unsecured loans. In London, the rate on such dollar loans is called the London Interbank Rate. Although there are rates for both borrowing and lending, in the financial markets the lending rate, called the London Interbank Offer Rate or LIBOR, is more commonly used in derivative contracts. LIBOR is the rate at which London banks lend dollars to other London banks. Even though it represents a loan outside of the United States, LIBOR is considered to be the best representative rate on a dollar borrowed by a private, i.e., non-governmental, high-quality borrower. It should be noted, however, that the London market includes many branches of banks from outside the United Kingdom, and these banks are also active participants in the Eurodollar market.
A Eurodollar time deposit is structured as follows. Let us say a London bank such as NatWest needs to borrow $10 million for 30 days. It obtains a quote from the Royal Bank of Scotland for a rate of 5.25 percent. Thus, 30-day LIBOR is 5.25 percent. If NatWest takes the deal, it will owe $10,000,000 X [l + 0.0525(30/360)] = $10,043,750 in 30 days. Note that, like the Treasury bill market, the convention in the Eurodollar market is to prorate the quoted interest rate over 360 days. In contrast to the Treasury bill market, the interest is not deducted from the principal. Rather, it is added on to the face value, a procedure appropriately called add-on interest. The market for Eurodollar time deposits is quite large, and the rates on these instruments are assembled by a central organization and quoted in financial newspapers. The British Bankers Association publishes a semiofficial Eurodollar rate, compiled from an average of the quotes of London banks. The U.S. dollar is not the only instrument for which such time deposits exist.
Eurosterling, for example, trades in Tokyo, and Euroyen trades in London. You may be wondering about Euroeuro. Actually, there is no such entity as Euroeuro, at least not by that name. The Eurodollar instrument described here has nothing to do with the European currency known as the euro. Eurodollars, Euroyen, Eurosterling, etc. have been around longer than the euro currency and, despite the confusion, have retained their nomenclature. An analogous instrument does exist, however-a euro-denominated loan in which one bank borrows euros from another. Trading in euros and euro deposits occurs in most major world cities, and two similar rates on such euro deposits are commonly quoted. One, called EuroLIBOR, is compiled in London by the British Bankers Association, and the other, called Euribor, is compiled in Frankfurt and published by the European Central Bank.
Now let us return to the world of FRAs. FRAs are contracts in which the underlying is neither a bond nor a Eurodollar or Euribor deposit but simply an interest payment made in dollars, Euribor, or any other currency at a rate appropriate for that currency. Our primary focus will be on dollar LIBOR and Euribor, so we shall henceforth adopt the terminology LIBOR to represent dollar LIBOR and Euribor to represent the euro deposit rate. Because the mechanics of FRAs are the same for all currencies, for illustrative purposes we shall use LIBOR. Consider an FRA expiring in 90 days for which the underlying is 180-day LIBOR. Suppose the dealer quotes this instrument at a rate of 5.5 percent. Suppose the end user goes long and the dealer goes short. The end user is essentially long the rate and will benefit if rates increase. The dealer is essentially short the rate and will benefit if rates decrease. The contract covers a given notional principal, which we shall assume is $10 million.

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FORWARD CONTRACTS ON INDIVIDUAL BONDS AND BOND PORTFOLIOS

FORWARD CONTRACTS ON INDIVIDUAL BONDS AND BOND PORTFOLIOS
Although a forward contract on a bond and one on a stock are similar, some basic differences nonetheless exist between the two. For example, the bond may pay a coupon, which corresponds somewhat to the dividend that a stock might pay. But unlike a stock, a bond matures, and a forward contract on a bond must expire prior to the bond’s maturity date. In addition, bonds often have many special features such as calls and convertibility. Finally, we should note that unlike a stock, a bond carries the risk of default. A forward contract written on a bond must contain a provision to recognize how default is defined, what it means for the bond to default, and how default would affect the parties to the contract.
In addition to forward contracts on individual bonds, there are also forward contracts on portfolios of bonds as well as on bond indices. The technical distinctions between forward contracts on individual bonds and collections of bonds, however, are relatively minor.
The primary bonds for which we shall consider forward contracts are default-free zero-coupon bonds, typically called Treasury bills or T-bills in the United States, which serve as a proxy for the risk-free rate.9 In a forward contract on a T-bill, one party agrees to buy the T-bill at a later date, prior to the bill’s maturity, at a price agreed on today. T-bills are typically sold at a discount from par value and the price is quoted in terms of the discount rate. Thus, if a 180-day T-bill is selling at a discount of 4 percent, its price per $1 par will be $1 – 0.04(180/360) = $0.98. The use of 360 days is the convention in calculating the discount. So the bill will sell for $0.98. If purchased and held to maturity, it will pay off $1. This procedure means that the interest is deducted from the face value in advance, which is called discount interest.
The T-bill is usually traded by quoting the discount rate, not the price. It is understood that the discount rate can be easily converted to the price by the above procedure. A forward contract might be constructed that would call for delivery of a 90-day T-bill in 60 days. Such a contract might sell for $0.9895, which would imply a discount rate of 4.2 percent because $1 – 0.042(90/360) = $0.9895.

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Incentive (Agency) Biases pt.3

We also know that there are mechanisms that can help alleviate agency problems.
A. Audits If the company runs independent assessments or audits, managers can make decisions based on better information, even if their employees are unwilling to provide it. However, many consultants suffer from the same disease as employees: they know that they are most likely to be rehired if they tell the manager what she wants to hear.
B. Truth-Telling Incentives If managers can be rewarded for telling the truth, agency conflicts will become less important. For example, if your company has a research scientist who has expertise in alpha-proteins and works on an alpha-protein project, your goal as manager should be to allow this scientist to say without suffering any negative consequences: “Donot waste your money putting any more research dollars into alpha-proteins.” This means that the scientist’s salary and promotion chances must remain the same or even increase— even if this means that she no longer has a good alternative use for her time and effort. You might even offer a reward for any scientists who are voluntarily cancelling their projects. Would you really be willing to carry through on such a promise? Would your research scientists believe you?
Some companies also undertake post audits, which are designed not only to evaluate the quality of the financial numbers (like a usual audit), but also the quality of managers’ upfront forecasts. Knowing that such post audits will be held will strengthen the incentives of managers to give accurate forecasts to begin with.
C. Contingent Compensation If managers are rewarded more if the project succeeds and punished if the project fails, agency conflicts will become less important. For example, if you pay your managers only when their projects succeed (or throw them into jail when their project fails!), then managers will work harder and choose projects that they believe are more likely to succeed.
Of course, like any other mechanism to control agency problems, this control strategy has its costs, too. Managers have to feed their families and you may not be able to attract the best managers if you force them to take on so much risk. (The capital markets are probably better at taking risk than individual families!) And such managers may also be more reluctant to take good risks on behalf of the company—risks that they should take in the interest of shareholders—if they are themselves risk averse and compensated by outcome.
D. Reputation If managers can build a reputation for truth-telling and capable management, they are less likely to undertake bad projects. For example, agency concerns are likely to be a worse problem when it comes to secret one-shot projects, where your managers cannot build a track record that will help them with future projects. On the other hand, sometimes reputational considerations can themselves become the problem. Witness the many dysfunctional but beautifully artistic office buildings that are primarily monuments to some famous architectural firm.
There is no obvious solution to these decision bias problems. Again, do not believe that just because we have spent only a few posts on agency issues that they are not important—they are both ubiquitous and very important in the real world. As a manager or principal, you must be skeptical of all estimates and judgments and take the biases and incentives of each information provider into account.

Posted in Biases.

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Incentive (Agency) Biases pt.2

We do know where agency problems play a bigger role and where they play a lesser role.
I. Scale and Owner Engagement In a small company with one owner and one employee, agency conflicts are less important than they are in big corporations with their many layers of management and disengaged owners.
Do you believe that professionally run companies really make the best decisions on behalf of their public shareholders? Remember that agency issues do not just arise between shareholders and management—they start with the lowest level employee and bubble all the way up to the top-level CEO. Decision-making is often based on a chain of deception. It is a testament to the importance of sharing risks among many investors that large, publicly traded companies still manage to net-in-net create shareholder value!
II. Project Duration If the project is short-term and/or comes with good interim progress points, it is easier to reward managers appropriately for success and punish them for failure. For example, think how you would judge and reward a manager who is (supposedly) working on an R&D project that is not likely to have visible results for decades. This is a difficult task. Agency problems for large and very long-term projects may be so intrinsically high that they cannot be undertaken.
III. External Noise If good luck is an integral and important part of the project, it becomes more difficult to judge managerial performance, which in turn aggravates agency issues. For example, we can relatively easily measure the productivity of a line worker in a factory. We know whether she works or slacks off. Therefore, agency problems matter less. In contrast, it is more difficult to determine if our sales agent worked hard but the customer just did not bite, or if our sales agent just failed. Similarly, our nightwatch security guard may or may not be working hard, and it could take years before we could learn (probably the hard way) whether she regularly stayed awake or just dozed off.
IV. Opaqueness If information is very difficult for outsiders to come by, agency problems will be worse. For example, if only your manager sees what projects are available, he can present only those that he would like to undertake and not mention those that have higher NPV, but require different skills that he may not have or more work that he finds unpleasant.

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Incentive (Agency) Biases

Mental biases are not our only bias. Another kind of bias arises when one person is acting on behalf of another. This is called an agency problem—a situation in which the owner of a project has to rely on someone else for information, and this someone else has divergent interests. An example may be shareholders who rely on corporate management to undertake projects on their behalves, or a division manager who has to rely on department managers for information about how profitable their proposed projects really are. A cynical synopsis of agency biases would be “all people act and lie in their own self-interest.” Now, although everyone does have incentives to lie—or at least color the truth—corporations are especially rife with such agency distortions. Of course, few people sit down and contemplate how to best and intentionally lie. Instead, they convince themselves that what is in their best interest is indeed the best route to take. Thus, mental biases often reinforce incentive problems: “wishful thinking” is a disease from which we all suffer.
You can take the fact that we have already had to mention agency issues repeatedly in this blog as an indication of how important and pervasive these are. But, again, lack of space forces us to highlight just a few issues with some examples:
1. Competition for Capital Managers often compete for scarce resources. For example, division managers may want to obtain capital for their projects. A less optimistic but more accurate estimate of the project cash flows may induce headquarters to allocate capital to another division instead. Thus, division managers often end up in a race to make their potential projects appear in the most favorable and profitable light.
2. Employment Concerns Managers and employees do not want to lose their jobs. For example, scientists tend to highlight the potential and downplay the drawbacks of their areas of research. After all, not doing so may cut the project and thereby cost them their jobs.
3. Perks Managers do not like to give up perks. For example, division managers may like to have their own secretaries or even request private airplanes. Thus, they are likely to overstate the usefulness of the project “administrative assistance” or “private plane transportation.”
4. Power Managers typically love to build their own little “empires.” For example, they may want to grow and control their department because bigger departments convey more prestige and because they are a stepping stone to further promotion, either internally or externally. For the same reason, managers often prefer not to maximize profits, but sales.
5. Hidden Slack Managers like the ability to be able to cover up problems that may arise in the future. For example, division managers may want to hide the profitability of their divisions, fearing that headquarters may siphon off “their” profits into other divisions. They may prefer to hide the generated value, feeling that the cash they produced in good times “belongs” to them—and that they are entitled to use it in bad times.
6. Reluctance to Take Risk Managers may hesitate to take on risk. For example, they may not want to take a profitable NPV project, because they can only get fired if it fails—and may not be rewarded enough if it succeeds. A popular saying used to be “no one was ever fired for buying IBM,” although these days Microsoft has taken over IBM’s role.
7. Direct Theft Managers and employees have even been known to steal outright from the company. For example, a night club manager may not ring sales into the cash register. Or a sales agent may “forget” to charge her relatives. In some marginal cases, this can be a fine line. For example, is taking a paper clip from the company or answering a personal e-mail from the company account really theft? In other cases, theft is blatantly obvious. In September 2002, Dennis Kozlowski, former CEO, was charged with looting $600 million from Tyco shareholders. His primary defense was that he did so in broad daylight—with approval from the corporate board that he had helped put in place.

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Taxes on Nominal Returns?

Here is an interesting question: if the real rate remains constant, does it help or hurt an investor if inflation goes up? Let’s assume that the real rate of return is a constant 20%. If inflation is 50%, then the nominal rate of return is 80% (because (1 + 50%) · (1 + 20%) = 1 + 80%): you get $180 for a $100 investment. Now add income taxes to the tune of 40%. The IRS sees $80 in interest, taxes $32, and leaves you with $48. Your $148 will thus be worth $148/(1 + 50%) = $98.67 in real value. Instead of a 20% increase in real purchasing power when you save money, you now suffer a $98.67/$100 − 1 ≈ 1.3% decrease in real purchasing power. Despite a high real interest rate, Uncle Sam ended up with more, and you ended up with less purchasing power than you started with. The reason is that although Uncle Sam claims to tax only interest gains, because the interest tax is on nominal interest payments, you can actually lose in real terms. Contrast this with the same scenario without inflation. In this case, if the real rate of return were still 20%, you would have been promised $20, Uncle Sam would have taxed you $8, and you could have kept $112 in real value.
For much of the post-war U.S. history, real rates of return on short-term government bonds have indeed been negative for taxed investors.
Inflation and taxes have an interesting indirect effect on equilibrium interest rates. You know that holding the agreed-upon interest fixed, inflation benefits borrowers and hurts lenders, because lenders who receive interest must pay taxes on the nominal amount of interest, not the real amount of interest. The reverse holds for borrowers. For example, assume interest rates are 3% and there is no inflation. A savings account holder with $100 in the 33% tax bracket has to pay 1% to Uncle Sam ($1), and gets to keep 2% ($2). Now assume that interest rates are 12% and inflation is 9%. The savings account holder would now have to pay 4% ($4) in taxes, and own $108 the coming year. However, because money has lost 9% of its value, the $108 is worth less than $100 the following year. In effect, although real rates are identical in the no-inflation and inflation scenarios, a lender who pays taxes on nominal interest receipts gets to keep less in real terms if there is inflation. (It is straightforward to check that the opposite is true for borrowers.) The implication of this argument is simple: to compensate lenders for their additional tax burdens (on nominal interest), real interest rates must rise with inflation.

Posted in Taxes.

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